The very severe cyclonic storm ‘OCKHI’ over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved further north-northeastwards with a speed of 13 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of 04th December, 2017 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near Latitude 15.2º N and Longitude 69.0º E, about 590 km southwest of Mumbai and 770 km south-southwest of Surat. It is very likely to continue to move north-northeastwards, weaken gradually and cross south Gujarat and adjoining north Maharashtra coasts near Surat as a deep depression by the night of tomorrow, the 5th December 2017.
Track and intensity forecast of the system is given in the following table:
|Date/Time(IST)||Position(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)||Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph)||Category of cyclonic disturbance|
|04/1430||15.2/69.0||120-130 GUSTING TO 145||VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM|
|04/1730||15.8/69.3||110-120 GUSTING TO 135||SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM|
|04/2330||16.5/69.8||100-110 GUSTING TO 120||SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM|
|05/0530||17.3/70.4||90-100 GUSTING TO 110||CYCLONIC STORM|
|05/1130||18.4/71.2||70-80 GUSTING TO 90||CYCLONIC STORM|
|05/2330||20.5/72.6||50-60 GUSTING TO 70||DEEP DEPRESSION|
|06/1130||22.3/73.8||35-45 GUSTING TO 55||DEPRESSION|
(i) Heavy Rainfall:
- Gujarat : Light to moderate rainfall is very likely at a few places over Saurashtra and south Gujarat region on 4thDecember. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely over Saurashtra and south Gujarat region on 05th December (Valsad, Surat, Navsari, Bharuch, Dang, Tapi, Amreli, Gir- Somnath, Bhavnagar, Diu, Daman, Dadra, and Nagar Haveli districts) and light to moderate rainfall over Gujarat region at many places on 6th December.
- Maharashtra: Light to moderate rainfall is very likely at a few places over north Konkan including Mumbai on 4thDecember. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over north Konkan on 5th December (Palghar, Thane, Raigarh, Greater Mumbai, Dhule, Nandurbar, Nashik, Jalgaon, Ahmednagar and Pune districts).
- Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph very likely along & off north Maharashtra and South Gujarat coasts from today, the 4th night to 6th December 2017 morning.
(ii) Sea condition:
- Sea condition would be rough to very rough along & off north Maharashtra and South Gujarat coasts from today, the 4th night to 6th December 2017 morning.
(iii) Damage Expected over south Gujarat (Valsad, Surat, Navsari, Bharuch, Dang, Tapi, Amreli, Gir- Somnath, Bhavnagar districts), Daman, Diu, and Dadra, Nagar Haveli and north Konkan Districts of Maharashtra(Palghar, Thane, Raigarh, and Greater Mumbai):
Minor damage to loose / unsecured structures. Minor damage to Banana trees. Some damage to agriculture near coast due to salt spray. Damage to ripe paddy crops. Minor damage to Kutcha embankments.
(iv) Action suggested
- South Gujarat and north Maharashtra coasts: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along & off South Gujarat and north Maharashtra coasts from 4th December to 6th morning.
- Well Marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal:
A well marked low pressure area lies over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea. It is very likely to become a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours and further intensify into a deep depression during subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards towards north Tamilnadu – south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 3 days.
- Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Nicobar Islands and rainfall at many places over Andaman Islands during next 3 days
- Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha on 7th and 8th December, 2017.
Squally winds speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph on 4th, and 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph on 5th and 6thDecember, 2017 very likely over and around Nicobar Islands and decrease thereafter.
Sea condition would be rough to very rough during 4th to 6th December, 2017 around Nicobar Islands.
- Fishermen along and off Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into sea during 4th to 6th December, 2017.
- Fishermen along and off Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu coasts are advised not to venture into sea during 6th to 8thDecember, 2017