M K Tayal 

Before the curtains of the highly successful G20 Summit could be drawn, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for the expansion of the United Nations Security Council and other world bodies. 

After the NAM in 1983, G20 was the biggest show in New Delhi, which went perfect to the T. The meet was a defining moment in history and the discussions are certain to have a profound impact on “One Earth, One Family, One Future” and the ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’. 

Addressing global challenges, the leaders were in tandem on the challenges the world faces today. The G20 New Delhi Leaders Declaration agreed to set up a Global Biofuels Alliance, promote Lifestyle for Sustainable Development (LiFE) and Travel for LiFE, and pursue low carbon emission and climate-resilient, environmentally-sustainable development goals and collaborate in finance, food and malnutrition, and health and education etc. The nations also agreed to share knowledge on nuclear energy.

With an economic corridor from Bharat via Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Europe, and the inclusion of African Union, the other 30-odd page declaration of ‘G21’ was fairly scalable except for the contentious issue of Ukraine over which NATO and Russia are at loggerheads. 

Modi and team tide over a difficult patch and got the Russians and the Americans on board to agree on ‘war in Ukraine’ phrase in the G20 New Delhi Leaders Declaration.

In the gush of things, however Modi enthusiastically proposed to expand the base of United Nations Security Council. Prima facie, this looks unattainable given the strong position, expansionist and aggressive China has taken.

The G20 effectively works on the same principles as the UN, following similar goals without opposition from China cause the framework exists in mutually amiable environment. In the UN, China opposes Bharat’s permanent entry into the Security Council while the other four members, USA, UK Russia and France have expressed their support for the expansion of the Security Council. 

China aspires to become the world superpower and replace the USA with its bustling ever-growing economy. It envisages no opposition from two NATO straight partners, France and UK. Given the war in Ukraine, Moscow needs Beijing more than it does any other capital because of its military and economic might.

And ‘Vishwa Guru Bharat’, wannabee world leader, is emerging as the formidable challenger. China would rather want a smooth run and a strong New Delhi is the misfit competitor. Blocking Bharat entry into the Security Council is simple and easy with the Veto power it enjoys in the UN. Unless Modi has strategies in place to squeeze China, Bharat is not entering the coveted Security Council anytime soon.

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World economy is now rebooting. The western world is decoupling with China. Youth unemployment in China is now stated to be 17.1 per cent. Xi Jinping, Chinese President, is staring at pressure cooker blast situation, which could take China into an unchartered territory and even a possible violent uprising.

Within the military circle, it is well-known that skirmishes across the line of actual control keep taking place, but they have largely been verbal feud or fisticuffs at the most. But the skirmishes, including the latest in the Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh, which was on the pattern of the Galwan Valley battle in 2020 in eastern Ladakh, is being assessed in the strategic domains to take worrisome seriousness. That will be on account of Xi increasingly becoming more insecure within the Communist regime in China.

Indian polity remains divided on ways to deal with China. Former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi has sought to pin down on the mat Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the Yangtse skirmish. Congress is building the political pitch on a ‘weak PM’ theme. This is in counter to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s muscular nationalism, which gained muscles following the surgical strikes carried out against the terror launch pads in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, in the aftermath of the Pulwama terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir.

This political divisiveness deprives India of a consensus strategy in dealing with China. Major General (Retd) Shashi Asthana has argued, while writing for Modern Diplomacy, that India too should have a law on defence of border on the lines of the Chinese law, which will give a statutory backing to the infrastructure upgradation across the LAC and the international borders. This indeed is in the context of some of the governments in New Delhi having been cold to the idea of building a robust border infrastructure.

The November data for China was gloomy. Retail sales went down by 5.9 per cent against the estimate of negative four per cent, industrial output was just 2.2 per cent against the estimate of 3.5 per cent, fixed asset investment was abysmal at 0.7 per cent, home sales dived by a whopping 31 per cent, while property investment took a 20 per cent beating. Data tells a dreadful future of China, which when faced with the full might of the global de-coupling can bring the Chinese economy crashing to a level that could set off a popular uprising, and that could be a ground for Xi to make LAC with China a tinderbox.

“People’s republic of China (PRC) refused to ratify the Simla Agreement of 1914, signed between British India and Tibet, initialled by Chinese representative. The Indian stance on Border generally follows Johnson Line (1865) in Ladakh and McMohan Line in East,” wrote Major General (retd) Asthana.

It may be known that China has accepted the McMohan Line with Myanmar. But with India, Xi has a domestic politics to play with and an economy that is nosediving and restlessness against the oppressive regime increasing. China pushing for more could be testing its luck.

Manish Anand is a senior journalist and views express are personal.

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Why couldn’t National Security Advisor Ajit Doval greet US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary Mark T Esper with the traditional Namaste rather than going for more theatrical elbow bumps?

Doval exchanged elbow bumps, skipping the conventional handshake or more favoured Namaste, with Pompeo and Esper, following social distancing norms amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Namaste has emerged as popular forms of greeting among world leaders in an effort to reduce the risk of a virus spread. World leaders have taken up Namaste. It is an almost universally recognized gesture of polite salutation. Namaste, or formally also known as the Anjali mudra. In Thailand it is called wai, in Cambodia, sampeah, and in Japanese Zen Buddhism, gassho. Even Fist bumps and elbow bumps are popular with the youth. Commando Doval just missed scoring a brownie point with the Hindu culture brigade.

Pompeo and Esper were in New Delhi to discuss strategies and enhancing cooperation basically aimed at counter-checking China. Before leaving for Colombo, said US “stands with India to deal with any threat”.

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In the aftermath of the Pulwama terrorist attack, three permanent members of Security Council the US, France and the UK had moved a resolution to designate JeM chief Masood Azhar a glocal terrorist but China is not playing ball.

Except for China, which wields veto power in the Security Council, all other UNSC members were on board with the move before the al-Qaida (1267) Sanctions Committee. India has expressed disappointment over China’s decision but said it will “pursue all available avenues” to bring to justice terrorist leaders involved in attack on Indians.

Outraged by China blocking for the fourth time a move to designate JeM chief Masood Azhar a global terrorist, UNSC members warned they “may be forced to pursue other actions” at the Security Council if Beijing continued with this policy.

“If China continues to block this designation, responsible member-states may be forced to pursue other actions at the Security Council. It shouldn’t have to come to that,” a Security Council diplomat said. Beijing previously put a technical hold on similar proposals at the UNSC thrice.

“This is the fourth time that China has placed a hold on this listing. China should not prevent the Committee from doing the job the Security Council has entrusted it to do,” another security council diplomat told PTI in response to a question.

“China’s move to hold the listing is inconsistent with its own stated goals of combatting terrorism and furthering regional stability in South Asia,” said the diplomat, requesting not to be named to speak frankly, given that the deliberations of the UN sanctions committee are confidential, thus preventing member-countries from talking about it in public.

The second security council diplomat also slammed Pakistan for depending on China to protect terrorist groups and leaders that operate from its soil.

“Pakistan has quite often depended on China to protect it from the listing of Pakistan-based terrorist groups and individuals in the UN 1267 sanctions committee,” the diplomat said.

“The case for designating Masood Azhar the leader of a group the UN already calls an al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist organization is undeniable,” the diplomat said.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration had said that Azhar meets the criteria for designation by the United Nations.

“Our views on Jaish-e-Mohammad and its founder are well known. JeM is a UN-designated terrorist group,” State Department deputy spokesperson Robert Palladino told reporters.

“Azhar is the founder and the leader of JEM, and he meets the criteria for designation by the United Nations. JEM has been responsible for numerous terrorist attacks and is a threat to regional stability and peace,” Palladino said.

The State Department referred to this statement on Wednesday when asked about the latest developments in New York.

“I would say that the United States and China share a mutual interest in achieving regional stability and peace, and that a failure to designate Azhar would run counter to this goal,” Palladino said. Congressman Brad Sherman described the Chinese move as unacceptable.

Once again, China has blocked the UN from imposing sanctions on Masood Azhar, the leader of Jaish-e-Mohammed, which carried out the Pulwama attack in India in February. This is unacceptable, he said.

I urge Beijing to allow the UN to place sanctions on Azhar, the leader of a UN-recognized terrorist organization, Sherman said.

Several American think-tank members slammed China for its decision delaying the Azhar listing.

Today, China doubled down on a very bad bet. It blocked yet another round of UN sanctions on Pakistan-based JeM chief Masood Azhar weeks after the group claimed credit for the deadliest terror attack in Kashmir, Jeff Smith from the Heritage Foundation said.

This one won’t be undone by another romantic stroll through Wuhan, he said, indicating that such a move by Beijing would only escalate the tension between India and China.

Not entirely unexpected, but nonetheless a slap to India’s face after last month’s bloody suicide-bombing in Kashmir. Also raises serious questions about the benefits of Modi’s photo-op diplomacy with Xi Jinping, tweeted Sadanand Dhume from American Enterprise Institute.

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