The general elections — April 11 to May 19 — has officially set the stage for a contest between the chemistry of BJP’s biggest asset, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the arithmetic of Opposition alliances across the country.
Although the dynamics of Lok Sabha and Assembly polls differ, the votes polled in the 27 states since 2014 show that the BJP stayed ahead of the Congress, which gained in numbers but still came up behind its key rival.
The BJP witnessed a minor erosion in votes across these states, and the Congress gained more than that slide. But the BJP still polled over 25 percent more votes than the Congress in terms of absolute numbers in these 27 states since 2014.
During the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP polled over 16.95 crore votes (over 31 percent) across the country, and the Congress about 10.6 crore votes (under 20 percent). But in the 27 Assembly elections since then, the BJP was preferred by over 15.5 crore voters (over 28.5 percent) while slightly less than 12.2 crores (under 22.2 percent) opted for the Congress.
This means that over 3.3 crores more voters — a gap of over six percent — preferred the BJP over the Congress for a second time since the 2014 Lok Sabha results.
However, when compared to the BJP’s 2014 Lok Sabha performance, the party witnessed an erosion of over 90 lakh voters cumulatively in these 27 states. At the same time, the Congress gained over 200 lakh voters.
Focussing solely on the last two Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s vote share was over 31 percent from less than 19 percent in 2009. In contrast, the Congress’ vote share dipped to nearly 19 percent in 2014 from over 28 percent in 2009.
In absolute terms, the Congress polled over 10.6 crore votes in 2014 — a net loss of votes from over 11.9 crores in 2009. The BJP, on the other hand, more than doubled its votes — from about 7.84 crores in 2009 to 16.95 crore in 2014.
The state polls in 2015 witnessed the BJP gaining strength before it suffered a setback in Delhi in February 2015 and Bihar in November 2015. However, the party recovered with a bang by winning the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh polls in 2017.
